{"id":585,"date":"2026-05-21T16:03:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:03:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arizonamovinginsider.com\/?p=585"},"modified":"2026-05-21T16:03:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:03:29","slug":"forecast-calls-for-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-amid-el-nino-conditions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arizonamovinginsider.com\/?p=585","title":{"rendered":"Forecast calls for below-normal Atlantic hurricane season amid El\u202fNi\u00f1o conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that it expects the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season to be below normal, largely attributing its forecast to a potentially strong El Ni\u00f1o pattern.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/arizonamovinginsider.com\/?p=583\">Early-season heatwave bakes Eastern US, sends students home in Philadelphia<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Forecasters say there is a 55% probability the 2026 season will be below normal, a 35% chance it will be near normal, and a 10% chance it will be above normal. The center stressed that it takes only one hurricane to cause catastrophic damage and noted that Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall during below-average seasons.<\/p>\n<p><b>RELATED STORY | <\/b><b>Record-breaking El Ni\u00f1o possible, bringing extreme weather, experts warn<\/b><\/p>\n<p>The agency predicts 8 to 14 named storms in 2026, with 3 to 6 becoming hurricanes and 1 to 3 reaching Category 3 strength or higher. An average season has 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.<\/p>\n<p>Although the 2025 season had only 13 named storms and five hurricanes, it was notable for producing three Category 5 hurricanes, including Hurricane Melissa, which devastated Jamaica and caused dozens of fatalities.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/arizonamovinginsider.com\/?p=581\">Woman seriously hurt after mobile home fire near 43rd Avenue and Van Buren Street<\/a><\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is part of a climate cycle in which waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. Sea surface temperatures in the region where El Ni\u00f1o develops are expected to be 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal.<\/p>\n<p><b>RELATED STORY | <\/b><b>\u2018Super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o could shape global weather, bring record heat<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Historically, El Ni\u00f1o brings wetter conditions to the southern United States and drier weather to the North. It also tends to produce milder winters across much of the country and is known for strengthening upper-level winds in the Atlantic, making it harder for hurricanes to form.<\/p>\n<p>But because of the much warmer ocean waters in the Eastern Pacific, NOAA Administrator Neil Jacob said that region could have a much higher rate of tropical storms and hurricanes in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/arizonamovinginsider.com\/?p=579\">Mark Lamb hits primary opponent Daniel Keenan with \u2018cease and desist\u2019 notice<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Forecasters expect a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season due to strong El\u202fNi\u00f1o, but warn it only takes one storm to cause devastation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-national-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - 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