‘We know how this story ends’: Phoenix health provider warns Medicaid could see massive drop

PHOENIX — After federal reforms to SNAP, enrollment in Arizona was slashed in half. Could Medicaid be next?

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H.R. 1, also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, was signed into law one year ago. The tax law revamped the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Some of the same changes are set to take effect for Medicaid in 2027.

Mike Renaud, the president and CEO of community health provider Valle Del Sol, said SNAP is a precursor to Medicaid.

“We already know how this story ends,” he said. “Just in the last seven months, Arizona has seen a 50% decline in eligible families for SNAP, including kids.”

Enrollment in SNAP is down by more than 450,000 people since July 2025, according to the latest numbers from the Department of Economic Security.

Expanded work requirements and more frequent eligibility checks – reforms Arizona has already implemented for SNAP – will come to Medicaid starting Jan. 1, 2027.

And Renaud fears a similar enrollment drop in AHCCCS, Arizona’s Medicaid program.

“If we lose 400,000 to 600,000 people out of our Medicaid enrollment in this state, it will be an unmitigated disaster,” he said.

U.S. Rep. Yassamin Ansari, a Democrat, said H.R. 1 is cutting needed health care and food assistance.

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“One year later, we can see exactly who this law was designed to help,” she said. “While billionaires and the wealthiest Americans in this country received massive tax breaks – historic tax breaks – working families in Arizona are paying the price.”

U.S. Rep. Greg Stanton said cuts to health care just make the system more expensive for everyone.

“Here’s the thing about taking away someone’s health care: It doesn’t take away their need for care,” he said. “It just changes where they get it and how much it’s going to cost all of us. Instead of a checkup at a community health center, it’s a crisis in an emergency room, the most expensive care there is.”

But Republican lawmakers in both Congress and the Legislature say reforms to SNAP and Medicaid are needed to root out fraud, waste, and abuse.

“We cannot be blind to the fact that these social programs have a tremendous potential for fraudulent abuse,” Senate Majority Leader John Kavanagh told reporters in February.

House Majority Leader Michael Carbone and other GOP lawmakers have also said spending growth in both SNAP and Medicaid is unsustainable.

“We’re not a welfare state. I don’t believe that,” he said. “But you have to ask yourself, why are 1 out of 3 people on some type of subsidy?”

The new state budget includes funding for semiannual eligibility checks for Medicaid and limits on fast-tracked coverage.

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