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SCOTTSDALE, AZ — Arizona’s 1st Congressional District has become one of the most watched races in the country, with political experts calling it a toss-up ahead of the primary election.
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CD1 is among a small number of truly competitive House races, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
“We only have 16 tossups in the House in our Crystal Ball House ratings. Two of them are Arizona One and Arizona Six so they’re really, really important,” Kondik said.
CD1 is home to about 820,000 people. The district includes northeast Phoenix, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Cave Creek. Because the race is so competitive, campaigns are spending heavily to reach voters.
“There are a lot of people who live in the Phoenix area who don’t live in Arizona One. But they’re going to be seeing those ads for Arizona One anyway,” Kondik said.
The seat is open
The race is highly competitive in part because the seat is open. Current Representative David Schweikert is running for Arizona governor instead of seeking re-election. Schweikert has held the seat since 2011.
“You do have potentially competitive primaries on both sides,” Kondik said.
Arizona’s primary election is July 21.
Kondik said the toss-up rating could very well persist up until the time of the election, although he said he wants to see who ultimately wins in the primary.
Republican primary candidates
Three candidates are running on the Republican side: former NFL kicker and commentator Jay Feely, former Arizona Representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough.
Donald Trump endorsed Feely, which Kondik said makes him the likely nominee — though not a certainty.
“Donald Trump endorsed Jay Feely on the Republican side. Presumably, that means he’s likely to be the nominee, although he faces competition in his own primary,” Kondik said.
Democratic primary candidates
Kondik described the Democratic primary as “more of a muddle,” with four candidates running.
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Former TV journalist Marlene Galan-Woods secured the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
ER physician and former Arizona Representative Amish Shah also ran for the seat in the last election and lost to Schweikert.
“He may just have residential name ID and that may be enough for him to win. Clearly, some people on the national side would prefer a different candidate, would prefer Galan-Woods,” Kondik said.
Community leader Rick McCartney and small business founder Jonathan Treble round out the Democratic primary ballot.
Voters weigh their options
The crowded primary field is making the decision harder for some voters.
Scottsdale resident Elizabeth Backie said she won’t fill out her ballot until right before the primary election.
“I think primaries are much harder than the actual general because we’re deciding amongst people that are on our side of the ticket,” Backie said.
“We’ve got a lot of quality candidates and right now there’s so much noise and attacks out there,” she said.
The economy, inflation and gas prices are top issues for many voters.
Phoenix resident Lisa Schaefer has been learning about the candidates and attended a town hall on immigration and the economy organized by the McCartney campaign last week.
“I want to see Congress step up and serve the American people and not serve one family and one administration,” Schaefer said.
As for who will come out on top in the Democratic primary?
“I do think it’s going to be close,” Schaefer predicted.
Email ABC15 Reporter Anne Ryman at [email protected], call her at 602-685-6345, or connect on X.
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